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The weather
!!! ATTENTION THIS SITE CONTAINS A LOT OF WRITTEN TEXT !!!
Weather is a very important element of tourism and walks. FROM the pair is David who cares about weather monitoring and about different predictions.
T u have a brief overview of how you can have an effective weather overview too!
The satellite
On the website of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute you can see various images from satellites. I recommend for planning and monitoring the current situation -
"Slovakia - day and night composite"
it is view of Slovakia in high resolution - refresh, every 15 minutes
"Central Europe - infrared composite"
you can use this view when you are planning a longer walk, or during the night, when you will see almost nothing on the previous one. But beware of weather variability. - refresh, every 15 minutes
Winter / Summer
IN I use it in winter to discover places that are above the clouds and there is an inversion, even in order to find out approximately how high we need to get to go above the fog and they sunk a little
I watch him in other parts of the year for example, when crossing queues, when the sun peeks out and we will be able run out among the first.
Satellite view of Slovakia - SHMÚ.sk
Radar
You can also look at the radar on the website of the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. It works on the principle of radar reflectivity and provides up - to - date information on the occurrence of precipitation and its intensity and their progress - in which direction they proceed. We use it less in winter, as snow doesn't matter as much as rain.
The higher the reflectivity level, the greater the amount of precipitation you can expect.
The green color on the map indicates wheezing, light rain
Yellow color - rain
Orange - heavy rain
Red color - break in clouds / storm
With reflectances above 55 - 60, hail often occurs (deep red, burgundy, pink on the map
I apologize to the meteorologist if I did not describe it exactly and did not use the correct terms. I'm not one of you, I'm a layman and I wanted to explain it better to people :)
However, due to the fragmentation of the territory of Slovakia, it does not have to be prediction based on radar information accurate - cloud cover with precipitation mountains can stop, clouds can fall apart over time, etc.
Beware of storms that arise quickly and it is good to monitor the situation in the sky, not only on mobile.
Thunderstorms
Storms are common in our summer and we are very reluctant to meet them during trips / tourism, as they can be not only unpleasant but also dangerous. Most often, if there are storm warnings, I should go on a trip / hike early in the morning so that I can complete it as soon as possible.
Storm monitoring
When we are in the wild and see that we are frowning or hearing thunder, we should get to safe places as soon as possible. At this point, it is very good to follow the current lightning maps.
Specifically, I use two:
Lightning
In the past I used Blitzortung, later I switched to Lightningmaps thanks to the Live map, but Blitzortung already has one, so it's up to you which site to choose and which you will like better. On both maps, you can track the progress of storms using color scaling, which distinguishes the oldest flashes from the current ones. Lightning that occurred a moment ago shines brightest on both maps. On the contrary, the oldest records are the richest
Radar from SHMÚ also has lightning detection. Live maps, however, are better in my opinion.
FORECAST STORM
The predictive models we use, which we will talk about later, cannot predict storms and, if so, only in a very small number of cases. For this reason, we use two sites again during the storm.
Both sites are managed by weather enthusiasts and sometimes it happens that the forecast for the next day does not appear on the site, then we are unlucky! But when the prediction appears, it is often commented and is often very accurate. Of course, this forecast will not tell you exactly when and where the storm will occur, but it will give you enough information to plan a trip / tourism.
For me, the prediction from Estofex is more understandable, the lines on the map show the probabilities of storms and storms probability of occurrence of dangerous accompanying phenomena such as hail, tornadoes, heavy rain, etc. All explanations are on the map and below the map for clicking on the forecast for a specific day. The commentary on the forecasts is written in a professional style, but you will also find there in layman's terms in which part of the day the risk of storms is greatest.
If you go through the explanations and browse the Severeweather page, you will also understand their prediction.
What will the weather be like in a week?
Although I would very much like to answer this question, the weather forecast is still a forecast and is in it a large number of uncertainties.
In general, however, we use the ALADIN forecast model, available on the SHMÚ website, for a 1-2 day weather report. This model and meteograms derived from it often provide sufficient information, however, has its shortcomings.
- ALADIN can not predict storms or low clouds, but on the other hand wind and temperatures quite yes.
- But watch out for real_alt and model_alt. The actual altitude of the place and the altitude for which a particular location is forecast often varies and just that can cause a deviation in correct values
If you are interested in a long-term forecast more likely are the events that the ECMWF model, thanks to which we have meteograms for a longer period, repeats in several successive forecasts.
For example: if today is 7.5. 7:00 and in the forecast at 15.5 there is a dramatic cooling, and this cooling will also be in the forecast at 7.5 at 18:00 and 8.5 at 7:00, it is more likely that dramatic cooling will come than if this forecast at 15.5 appeared in the model at only 7.5 o 15:00.
I hope you understand: D
Sometimes, especially in winter, when I'm waiting for the cold and a lot of snow, I also watch the Tropicaltidbits page. Here you will find a large number of meteorological models and their display on maps. If you are interested, play with this site and you can learn a lot. I personally use this map to monitor the expected cooling or warming. Specifically, it is a GFS model and a prediction of the temperature deviation at the level of 850 hPa from the normal in ° C. With the probability of occurrence, it is the same as with the Aladin model, if for 3 days in a row it says that a change in a week will come, it is more likely that it will come than that it will not come.
I believe that this advice will help you when planning trips :)
But I recommend having a list of places you want to see. He constantly we add a we always decide based on the weather in that day at most the day before we go. We also plan longer full-day tours a week in advance, but the weather uncertainty is greater and so you can't despair if such a trip cancels the weather.